Results at a glance
The whole model, live. Choose who you're feeding, the conditions and the transport distance — every figure below recomputes as you change them. The paper's published settings are the defaults; the severity and distance options are the paper's own tested scenarios, and anything else you change is clearly marked as yours.
Each card is a complete alternative — grow wheat OR potatoes OR dairy, never added together. Every card meets the full Daily Intake; whichever of energy or protein needs more land decides the size (hover any figure for exact values).
All figures are minimums of land — enough to hold everyone at today's average intake with one food alone. The canola figure includes the fuel to grow the fuel, counted once (≈+5% at baseline, more in winter — a first approximation, as in the paper, p.7). Fuel is one choke point of several: spare parts, fertiliser and agrichemicals, competing diesel uses and processing energy are outside this model, and the paper says so.
Sources & caveats for this page
Every default and every formula comes from Boyd M, Ragnarsson S, Terry E, Payne B & Wilson N (2024), Mitigating imported fuel dependency in agricultural production: Case study of an island nation's vulnerability to global catastrophic risks, Risk Analysis, DOI 10.1111/risa.14297 — requirement Table 2; land Table 3; canola Tables 4–6; yield reductions Xia et al. (2022) as used in the study. The calculation engine is ported from the published FLAGRI tool. At paper settings this page reproduces the paper's tables exactly. An earlier small dairy discrepancy (≈0.15%) was traced to display rounding in Table 2 and resolved with the study authors (22 Jul 2026): the engine now uses the study's unrounded dairy diesel rate (54.913 L/ha = 95 M L ÷ 1.73 M ha; Table 2 displays 55). The dairy loop figure sits within ±1 ha of Table 5 (trip-count rounding).
NZ 2026 population chip: Stats NZ provisional estimate at 31 March 2026 (5,361,300) — a tool extension, not a study figure. National comparison lines (% of grain land, % of national diesel) are hidden when you enter a custom population, because they stop being meaningful at community scale.
First cut: this page is self-contained for now — settings you change on the Scenario Builder pages don't flow in here yet. Linking the builder to these results (including your own crops and local context) is the planned next step.