FLAGRI Scenario Builder · settings & clarification Working draft — Page 1 of a multi-page builder
FLAGRI Scenario Builder · Page 1 of 5

People & Nutrition

Set who you are feeding, what they need, and for how long. The figures published in the FLAGRI study4 are the defaults — change any value to fit your own community or scenario, and reset to return to the paper.

Calculated requirement — updates as you change the settings below
People
—
Period
—
Food energy / day
—
all people combined
Energy, whole period
—
Protein / day
—
all people combined
Protein, whole period
—
All paper defaults ✓
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People

Paper default

The number of individuals to be fed. The study modelled all of New Zealand — 5,114,800 people, the population as at 2021.1 A district, town or community can enter its own number instead; the need scales directly with people.

Number of peoplepaper: 5,114,800
Worth knowing: the model scales linearly, so a community answer is arithmetically sound — but national comparison figures (e.g. "% of NZ grain land") stop being meaningful at community scale. Local land and context get their own settings on the Land & Context page.

 

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Nutrition

Paper default

What one person needs per day. The study uses a population-average intake of 8,686 kJ of food energy1 and 81 g of protein.2 Land is worked out for both, and the larger answer wins — protein is what makes potatoes need extra land.

Food energy — kJ / person / daypaper: 8,686
Protein — g / person / daypaper: 81
Worth knowing: these are broad-stroke population averages for estimating minimum food quantities — every person differs, and energy + protein don't tell the whole story (fat, micronutrients and drinking water are not modelled). Use the results as a rough minimum, not a diet plan.

Future addition: other nutritional factors (fat, key micronutrients) as further checks.

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Time period

Paper default

How long the people must be fed. The study works in whole years — crop yields are annual figures.4 Our recommendation is to keep one year; other periods are still possible and simply scale the requirement up or down.

Period — monthspaper: 12 (one year)
Worth knowing: the calculation always runs on annual yields in the background; a 3-month figure is the yearly answer scaled by ¼. Growing seasons and crop cycles are not modelled — food takes time to grow and is not ready on day one. A short period tells you how much food is needed, not whether it could be grown within that window.

Future addition: crop cycles per year (e.g. one potato cycle per year in cold climates) and time-to-first-harvest.

⠿ Boxes are self-contained settings modules — drag a header to reorder. The same module can be placed on any page of the builder later.

References for this page

  1. Wilson N, Prickett M, et al. (2023) — NZ population (2021) and per-capita food energy intake, as used in the FLAGRI study (Table 2).
  2. Wilson N, Payne B, et al. (2023) — per-capita protein intake (Table 2).
  3. Population totals for the whole period are calculated from the rows above, matching the study's model values (16.2 trillion kJ and 151.2 billion g per annum at defaults).
  4. Boyd M, Ragnarsson S, Terry E, Payne B & Wilson N (2024). Mitigating imported fuel dependency in agricultural production: Case study of an island nation’s vulnerability to global catastrophic risks. Risk Analysis. DOI 10.1111/risa.14297.

In the full builder, all references live on one dedicated page; boxes carry only the small numbers, to keep the settings uncluttered.